Minority communities, women voters showed high levels of support
On Friday, Chamber of Progress released newly commissioned research by economists from Berkeley Research Group, analyzing support for California’s Prop 22 vote. The research examined the correlation between the demographic makeup of communities in California and support for the gig work ballot initiative.
The research was conducted by the economists David Lewin and Mia Kim from Berkeley Research Group. Lewin heads the firm’s Human Capital practice and is the Neil H. Jacoby professor of management, human resources, and organizational behavior at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Lewin and Kim conducted a quantitative analysis of Proposition 22 voting results by county and for communities within Los Angeles County (California’s largest county), focusing on the demographic composition of counties and cities. They identified voting for Proposition 22 as the dependent variable (the phenomenon they sought to explain) while exploring other independent variables that potentially explain voting for Proposition 22.
KEY RESEARCH FINDINGS:
- Higher support for Prop 22 in cities and counties with large Black communities
- In California’s ten counties with the highest share of Black residents, voters approved Prop 22 by an average margin of 20.7%.
- Holding other variables constant, the analysis found that a 10% increase in a county’s Black population correlated with a 6.2% increase in support for Prop 22.
- For cities within Los Angeles County (California’s largest county), the analysis found that every 10% increase of Black residents correlated with a 6.2% increase in voters who supported Prop 22
- In LA’s ten most Black cities, Prop 22 passed by an average margin of 15.9%.
- Higher support for Prop 22 in cities and counties with large Hispanic communities
- In California’s ten most Hispanic counties, voters approved Prop 22 by an average margin of support of 26.8%.
- In L.A.’s ten most Hispanic cities, voters approved Prop 22 by an average margin of support of 8.9%.
- The analysis finds that a 10% increase in a county’s Hispanic population correlates with a 1.4% increase in support for Prop 22
- Higher support among women, lower support in politically liberal areas
- Holding other factors constant, a 10% increase in a population’s share of women correlated with a 7.4% increase in support for Prop 22.
- A 10% increase in an area’s share of registered Democratic voters correlated with a 7.7% decrease in support for Prop 22.
“As other states consider rules on gig work, the analysis from California is clear: communities of color supported flexible work by big margins,” said Chamber of Progress CEO Adam Kovacevich. “Black and Hispanic communities as well as women carried the Prop 22 vote in California, respecting gig drivers’ own preference for flexibility.”
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